Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 36.255908 41.039382 46.691044 53.999312 63.419510 75.493682 92.770628
2025-05-04 29.988020 35.883725 43.584603 54.864945 71.964976 99.075761 151.654703
2025-05-11 25.838532 32.112463 40.911173 55.096006 79.799058 128.178890 266.211943
2025-05-18 22.676105 28.919964 38.124104 54.061135 85.133564 159.338091 506.029090
2025-05-25 20.611424 26.867559 36.495839 54.283937 93.028665 208.935800 1555.345582
2025-06-01 18.890773 25.031523 34.798346 53.798212 99.293788 269.768130 54458.003420
2025-06-08 17.449191 23.416025 33.154173 52.907473 104.228260 345.553968 NaN
2025-06-15 16.282956 22.087968 31.774930 52.166487 109.350406 455.077812 NaN
2025-06-22 15.343268 21.018353 30.683822 51.753445 115.496129 637.488272 NaN
2025-06-29 14.400752 19.852449 29.261634 50.254130 117.200391 826.207229 NaN
2025-07-06 14.123090 19.760433 29.801105 53.505604 140.211064 2727.489040 NaN
2025-07-13 13.456052 18.944174 28.849992 52.818572 146.285347 7615.241534 NaN
2025-07-20 12.956470 18.386771 28.358692 53.284998 159.564510 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.524850 17.914290 27.982170 53.994582 176.188878 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 12.086024 17.395647 27.452557 54.155147 190.744968 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.591696 16.744216 26.581461 53.120000 196.143072 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.234738 16.318499 26.144467 53.322631 212.928934 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.857420 15.832004 25.531084 52.844682 224.054859 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.482268 15.328539 24.838014 51.976920 230.881754 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.144741 14.877163 24.222845 51.255985 239.127969 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.852050 14.494311 23.728590 50.854178 251.612452 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.511302 14.005749 22.964465 49.397115 248.694999 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.474622 14.086121 23.481273 52.555181 325.093888 NaN NaN